By Josep Maria Rosanas (auth.)
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Additional resources for Decision-Making in an Organizational Context: Beyond Economic Criteria
In summary, whenever a decision is repetitive and no catastrophic consequences are foreseeable, then “playing the averages” is a good decision rule: take the action alternatives that have a positive net expected value. This is what any institution organizing a lottery does. Non-repetitive decisions related to an uncertain variable What happens when decisions are not repetitive? The problem becomes more difficult. A decision such as getting married is not one we make daily, or where we can “play the averages”.
And yet the possibility of “superstitious learning” is just around the corner: we attribute our failures to Complex Decisions: Quantitative Variables and Qualitative Variables 37 “bad luck” or blame them on someone else. This is always a safe haven for the overoptimistic who do not want to learn. In ancient times, the “genius of the forest”, the “god of the winds”, or any other mythological creature was a handy explanation for a multitude of phenomena. On the other hand, hypercritical people tend to blame themselves even for things they did well.
In conclusion, intuition and emotion are factors that should be taken into account when considering what is rational, whether to enhance or to dampen their effects for our purposes, or even to avoid them entirely where their consequences would be irrational or negative. And it is precisely to the consequences of decisions that we turn in the next chapter. 3 Decisions, Results, and Consequences: Learning Right decisions and successful decisions We now go back to what we said in the introduction regarding the distinction between “right” decisions and “successful” decisions.
Decision-Making in an Organizational Context: Beyond Economic Criteria by Josep Maria Rosanas (auth.)